Latvia’s edge is clear: 1.25 xG vs Cyprus’ 0.77 and a 10% stronger defence against a 10% weaker one strongly favour Latvia or Draw. Corner models project 5.27 vs 3.09, aligning neatly with Over 7.5. With both defences low-to-leaky and xG totalling 2.02, Over 1.5 goals looks a logical extension of Latvia’s underlying control.

With Armenia’s 1.48 xG and Montenegro’s 0.97, the matchup profiles for at least 2 goals, while both sides project a combined 8.42 xCorners, making 9+ corners realistic. Montenegro’s stable defense and Armenia’s only modest +9% attack edge keep the away side live for at least a draw, and the early tempo points to 0.5+ FH goals.