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Under / Over Goals · best goal line per match

2026-11-15 · 72 fixtures

Live matches first, then by kick-off time.

Over/under goals predictions today cover 72 matches across UEFA Nations League, Coupe de France, Eerste Divisie, Friendly International, J2-League. The Poisson model calculates the probability of total goals exceeding or staying under each goal line (1.5, 2.5, 3.5). Today's highest-confidence pick is Over 1.5 in Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos (83% probability).

55'
Granada1
Las Palmas0
LaLiga 2
Over 1.574%Under 3.573%Under 2.551%
67'
Santiago Wanderers0
Copiapo1
Primera B
Over 1.577%Under 3.569%Over 2.553%
47'
Penafiel1
Lusitania FC0
Liga Portugal 2
Under 3.576%Over 1.571%Under 2.555%
FT
Tenerife2
AD Ceuta0
LaLiga 2
Under 3.574%Over 1.573%Under 2.552%
17:30
Eldense
Sabadell
LaLiga 2
Over 1.574%Under 3.573%Under 2.551%
17:30
Eibar
Cadiz
LaLiga 2
Over 1.576%Under 3.570%Over 2.552%
FT
New Zealand3
India0
Friendly International
Over 1.578%Under 3.567%Over 2.555%
FT
Tefana0
Thionville Lusitanos4
Coupe de France
Over 1.583%Over 2.563%Under 3.559%
FT
Vanraure Hachinohe2
Iwaki2
J2-League
Under 3.581%Over 1.566%Under 2.561%
FT
Consadole Sapporo1
Sagan Tosu2
J2-League
Under 3.575%Over 1.572%Under 2.554%
FT
Vegalta Sendai4
Blaublitz Akita0
J2-League
Over 1.574%Under 3.573%Under 2.551%
FT
Imabari0
Júbilo Iwata2
J2-League
Under 3.576%Over 1.571%Under 2.555%

The highest-confidence over/under goals prediction today is Over 1.5 in Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos (Coupe de France), with a 83% probability according to the model.

Across today's 12 analysed matches, the most frequently predicted pick is Over 1.5, appearing as the top selection in 7 fixtures.

Each prediction is generated from team-specific metrics sourced from SSTrader's pre-match data feed. All predictions are settled against real bookmaker results, and historical accuracy is tracked publicly.

Frequently Asked Questions

Over 2.5 goals means 3 or more total goals in the match. Under 2.5 means 2 or fewer. The Poisson model calculates this by summing probabilities for all scorelines with 3+ combined goals.

Over/Under 2.5 predictions are among the most accurate football betting markets, with typical model accuracy of 55-65%. The Poisson model performs best on goal-line markets because goal distribution follows a Poisson pattern.

The model uses each team's expected goals (xG) to build a Poisson probability table. It sums the probabilities of all scorelines where total goals exceed (Over) or stay below (Under) the specified line.

Today, the highest-probability Over/Under pick is Over 1.5 in Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos (Coupe de France), with a 83% chance.

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